Minnesota Weather September 2nd thru September 8th

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Hello-

There has been a long gap in posts--my apologies. I have been mostly on Twitter due to my busy schedule. The weather tends to wind down a bit in the fall in the Upper Midwest. Aside from a few severe weather instances and the heat wave, things haven't been terribly intense here. After a brief cool down on Sunday and Monday (Today)--we should begin to moderate again for the week. September--just like the month of March, happens to be one of our biggest changing weather months, when the Sun goes through it's most rapid transition with it's angle of inclination and solar radiation output. Translation--by the end of the month, things should begin cooling down rather dramatically, and our chances of severe weather will also diminish as well.  We have had severe weather as late as November, but our chances are slimming quite a bit by the fall--which officially arrives on 9/22.  Meteorological Fall actually came on 9/1--which essentially means our beginning of our cooler period.  It sure will feel like fall tonight after our extended heat wave--as we expect a low of just 49 degrees!  Even cooler in the suburbs and Northern MN. 

Here are some updated maps to highlight the weather we expect this week. Other than some small chances of showers in S MN on Tuesday, it should be a fairly dry week up until late Saturday/Sunday, when we see more chances of storms.  If there is a risk of severe weather on the weekend, I will keep you updated as well--as it seems we are in store for a fairly dramatic cool down on Sunday, after some heat and humidity on Saturday. 

7-Day Forecast

Here are some precipitation and temperature maps for the Upper Midwest:

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook

Enjoy the last bits of summer and early fall!

-Bo

Weather Update: August 3rd thru August 9th

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

This weekend will feature some pleasant and nice weather in the area.  Temps are below normal for this time of year, but I am sure many people will find it to be comfortable.

Today we are looking for a high in the mid to upper 70s--with mostly sunny skies in the AM, becoming partly cloudy during the day.  Southern MN and parts of Northern MN might be even more cloudy at times, due to some larger cloud masses passing by.

Clouds approaching from West and Northwest

The next 7 days are looking fairly nice, with brief warmup in the early part of the week before some chances of severe storms in the upper Midwest.  I will highlight that shortly.  It is a long ways out, but still worth watching. 

7-day outlook

Here is the precipitation outlook for the next 3 days, generally speaking:

Precip Outlook 1

Precip Outlook 2

Precip Outlook 3

Here are some maps highlighting the coming severe weather potential.  The models are still in disagreement over the exact spot, but it could be nearby.
The GFS and the NAM are a bit different. 
CAPE:  Values are quite high, just south, which likely indicates where the warm front will be positioned. 

CAPE

Dewpoint:  Values will spike in Southern MN along that front as well, creeping up towards MSP. 

Dewpoint

Lifted Index:  Values will also spike in Southern MN, with gradual decrease towards MSP.  Any change in these models could change where we see the severe weather. 

Lifted Index

Temperatures:  One of the main limiting factors is the level of heat for MSP.  The mid to upper 80's will be mainly in Iowa, but we will likely stay in upper 70's to near low 80s here. 

Temperatures

Surface winds:  These appear to be coming from different directions, along the area where the suspected warm front will be in Southern MN.  There will also be some wind shear occurring on this day.  Nothing significant, but enough to help any storm formation. 

Surface Winds

Jet Stream:  There will be a core of faster wind speeds overheard, as the Jet Stream is over us.  This will help add some energy to the atmosphere. 

Jet Stream winds 300MB Level

A lot will likely change, as this is 84 to 90+ hours out, but I will keep watching models.  The main differences between the GFS and NAM (this info was from GFS)--are that that NAM seems to put everything a bit farther north into the Dakota's and MN and WI, but leaving a hole around MSP, which could possibly be to a suspected stabilized atmosphere from morning storms that could tap into the energy.  The NAM seems to hint at two spikes, one to the West, and one to the East and South.
 
I will keep watching it for everyone.  In the meantime, enjoy the weekend!  It will be nice.  Still a bit cool for me, but nice, with low humidity.  There are signs that the Jet Stream will continue misbehaving like it did this spring, which could mean a much cooler August.  There is still some hope in the long range charts, but it will have to be watched closely as well.  This has been far from a normal year anyways, so it will likely stay that way for a while!

Thanks for reading...
Bo

Weather Update: July 27th thru July 29th

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Welcome to late September to early October temperatures!  Quite honestly, I didn't even see this coming or think we could get this cold so soon.  But it's here!  The perfect weekend to sit outside if you have a heat phobia, or the perfect weekend to get those random tasks done, so that you can enjoy our (hopefully) better weekends to come in good way, outside.

There's not a lot of exciting weather to talk about today, but I will briefly explain why we are seeing such cold temps this weekend.  Much of our weather is controlled by the jet stream.  Typically this time of year, it rides from west to east a slight curve, but mostly flat along the US Canadian border--or even higher!  Right now, it has buckled a bit, similar to what was happening to us in late spring.

Here are a few images to explain:

Jet Stream in Trough Pattern over Upper Midwest

You can see the Jet Stream coming heading over the Pacific Northwest, like it should, but the difference here is that it starts to buckle south over the upper midwest, which allows for cold air to pour south over Canada.  This is typically on the backside of a cold front or low that this starts to happen.
Here are the temps we are seeing today:

Temperatures Below Normal--Record Cold

Here's the Jet Stream as we progress thru the weekend:

Jet Stream Trough Shifts East

Here are the temps as they begin to moderate with this shift in the Jet Stream:

Temperatures Improve

Here are the maps for Monday, as we are nearly out of this cold snap for the time being.
The Jet Stream has shifted east with the buckle that created the trough.

Jet Stream Continues Shifting to NE US

Temperatures begin to moderate even more.  Oddly, Northern MN and Canada will likely see quicker increase in the temperatures due to the proximity to the other part of the Jet Stream ridge that allowed for warm temps in Northern Canada and Alaska.

Temperatures Improving

Today we will be dealing with some on and off showers, with cool and windy conditions.  Temperatures should improve slightly tomorrow, with greater increases to the West and Northwest.  The coolest air will be over Northern Wisconsin.
Here are the conditions we expect for the next 7 days, and also the precip outlooks through Monday:

7-day Outlook

Precipitation Outlook Day 1

Precipitation Outlook Day 2

Precipitation Outlook Day 3

Thanks for visiting, and stay warm this weekend!
-Bo

July 20th through July 22nd Forecast

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Hello-
My apologies for a long gap in posts. I was upgrading my site, and was moving, so there was some downtime with my Internet as well.

Here is your updated weekend forecast for Minnesota through Monday 7/22:

Here are your High and Low Temps Forecasts for Each Day through Monday, and also your precipitation forecasts. Also, after this, I will discuss the severe weather potential for Monday in MN.

July 20th through 22nd Outlook--Precipitation & Temperatures:

Precip Outlook Sat Through Sunday

Precip Outlook Sun through Monday

Saturday Highs

Sunday Highs

Monday Highs

Saturday Lows

Sunday Lows

Monday Lows

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY:
There is an increasing chance of Severe Weather in Southern MN on Monday.
Temperatures:  Temps will be near 90 in Southern MN...plenty of warmth for Severe Storms.  

Temperatures

Dewpoints:  Will likely be up into the 70's in Southern MN.  Plenty of fuel for the storms to initiate.  

Dewpoint

Jet Stream Winds:  The Winds are Moving directly overhead contributing to the instability and wind shear.

Jet Stream Winds

CAPE:  Quite high, with values above 4000 J/Kg.  

CAPE

WIND SHEAR:  The Red lines indicated surface winds, and the blue refers to winds aloft.  They change direction with height, which is what we call wind shear--and this helps with the formation of tornadoes.  

WIND SHEAR

LIFTED INDEX:  These values are above the typical threshold for Severe Weather as well...so development could be explosive if the CAP is not too strong.  

LIFTED INDEX VALUES

Stay tuned to this blog for updates based on the changing models through the weekend.
Thanks for visiting!
Bo

July 13th through July 14th Forecast

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.


Hello.  Many areas of the western Twin Cities area are drying out after getting nearly 5 inches of rain last night--causing flooding issues.  Various other severe weather reports came in throughout the day as well.  Today could lead to more active weather to the west, and again in MSP overnight.  Here is your forecast through July 15th.  High Temps, Low Temps, and expected Precipitation.  Also, your 7-day Temp/Precip/Wind Forecast is directly below. 

Here are your severe weather outlook parameters for today--

General Severe Weather Risk--Main Risk is Slight, throughout a few areas:

Wind/Hail Risk:

Tornado Risk:

Thanks for visiting!
Bo