Weather Update: July 27th thru July 29th

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Welcome to late September to early October temperatures!  Quite honestly, I didn't even see this coming or think we could get this cold so soon.  But it's here!  The perfect weekend to sit outside if you have a heat phobia, or the perfect weekend to get those random tasks done, so that you can enjoy our (hopefully) better weekends to come in good way, outside.

There's not a lot of exciting weather to talk about today, but I will briefly explain why we are seeing such cold temps this weekend.  Much of our weather is controlled by the jet stream.  Typically this time of year, it rides from west to east a slight curve, but mostly flat along the US Canadian border--or even higher!  Right now, it has buckled a bit, similar to what was happening to us in late spring.

Here are a few images to explain:

Jet Stream in Trough Pattern over Upper Midwest

You can see the Jet Stream coming heading over the Pacific Northwest, like it should, but the difference here is that it starts to buckle south over the upper midwest, which allows for cold air to pour south over Canada.  This is typically on the backside of a cold front or low that this starts to happen.
Here are the temps we are seeing today:

Temperatures Below Normal--Record Cold

Here's the Jet Stream as we progress thru the weekend:

Jet Stream Trough Shifts East

Here are the temps as they begin to moderate with this shift in the Jet Stream:

Temperatures Improve

Here are the maps for Monday, as we are nearly out of this cold snap for the time being.
The Jet Stream has shifted east with the buckle that created the trough.

Jet Stream Continues Shifting to NE US

Temperatures begin to moderate even more.  Oddly, Northern MN and Canada will likely see quicker increase in the temperatures due to the proximity to the other part of the Jet Stream ridge that allowed for warm temps in Northern Canada and Alaska.

Temperatures Improving

Today we will be dealing with some on and off showers, with cool and windy conditions.  Temperatures should improve slightly tomorrow, with greater increases to the West and Northwest.  The coolest air will be over Northern Wisconsin.
Here are the conditions we expect for the next 7 days, and also the precip outlooks through Monday:

7-day Outlook

Precipitation Outlook Day 1

Precipitation Outlook Day 2

Precipitation Outlook Day 3

Thanks for visiting, and stay warm this weekend!
-Bo

July 20th through July 22nd Forecast

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Hello-
My apologies for a long gap in posts. I was upgrading my site, and was moving, so there was some downtime with my Internet as well.

Here is your updated weekend forecast for Minnesota through Monday 7/22:

Here are your High and Low Temps Forecasts for Each Day through Monday, and also your precipitation forecasts. Also, after this, I will discuss the severe weather potential for Monday in MN.

July 20th through 22nd Outlook--Precipitation & Temperatures:

Precip Outlook Sat Through Sunday

Precip Outlook Sun through Monday

Saturday Highs

Sunday Highs

Monday Highs

Saturday Lows

Sunday Lows

Monday Lows

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY:
There is an increasing chance of Severe Weather in Southern MN on Monday.
Temperatures:  Temps will be near 90 in Southern MN...plenty of warmth for Severe Storms.  

Temperatures

Dewpoints:  Will likely be up into the 70's in Southern MN.  Plenty of fuel for the storms to initiate.  

Dewpoint

Jet Stream Winds:  The Winds are Moving directly overhead contributing to the instability and wind shear.

Jet Stream Winds

CAPE:  Quite high, with values above 4000 J/Kg.  

CAPE

WIND SHEAR:  The Red lines indicated surface winds, and the blue refers to winds aloft.  They change direction with height, which is what we call wind shear--and this helps with the formation of tornadoes.  

WIND SHEAR

LIFTED INDEX:  These values are above the typical threshold for Severe Weather as well...so development could be explosive if the CAP is not too strong.  

LIFTED INDEX VALUES

Stay tuned to this blog for updates based on the changing models through the weekend.
Thanks for visiting!
Bo

July 13th through July 14th Forecast

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.


Hello.  Many areas of the western Twin Cities area are drying out after getting nearly 5 inches of rain last night--causing flooding issues.  Various other severe weather reports came in throughout the day as well.  Today could lead to more active weather to the west, and again in MSP overnight.  Here is your forecast through July 15th.  High Temps, Low Temps, and expected Precipitation.  Also, your 7-day Temp/Precip/Wind Forecast is directly below. 

Here are your severe weather outlook parameters for today--

General Severe Weather Risk--Main Risk is Slight, throughout a few areas:

Wind/Hail Risk:

Tornado Risk:

Thanks for visiting!
Bo

Weather for July 11th in Minnesota

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources. 

My apologies for the delay.  I had a 3 day Internet outage, due to a modem malfunction, resulting in the sending of a new one.  Regular posts will resume tonight and tomorrow. 


Here is your 7-day forecast for the MSP area, and statewide/US precip and temperature forecasts for tomorrow.  I will post a larger blog in the coming days.

Thanks!
Bo

July 7th through July 13th. Severe Risk again on Tuesday.

July 7th through July 13th:

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Hello everyone.  Our typical summer pattern is continuing.  Last nights severe weather did not quite happen for MSP.  The reason for this was the lack of the Low Level Jet Stream, which is typically needed to help initiate storms after dark.  It just didn't ramp up as expected.  There were storms to the West in the Dakotas, and to the North, and also East in Wisconsin.  We didn't get much more than a few rain showers.

We have another shot at some severe weather in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday 7/9.  The only potential limitings with this event would be a capping inversion (potential) and a possibility that overnight storms from Monday into Tuesday will leave too much lingering cloud and shower activity which would then cause the atmosphere to stabilize.  We need more clearing to make the conditions ripe for storm formation.

As always, here are some charts for you--for about 6pm Central time on Tuesday.

Upper level winds (Jet Stream) and Surface winds:

Jet Stream at 300MB Level

Surface Winds from South

Here is the expectation for CAPE:

CAPE

Lifted Index Values:

Lifted Index

 Temperatures:

Temperatures

Dewpoint Temps

Proposed Severe Risk from SPC--Slight Risk.  Also, there is a chart indicating the probability of Severe Weather within 25 miles of a point, with most of the area being at 30%.  These values will likely be tweaked as Tuesday approaches.

Slight Severe Risk

Categorical Risk

 Here is your updated 7-day Forecast as well:

Also, your Monday and Tuesday Precipitation Outlooks for the US and MN:

Thanks for checking back.  I will update tomorrow based on new model runs for the Severe Weather potential on Tuesday.

-Bo