July 7th through July 13th. Severe Risk again on Tuesday.

July 7th through July 13th:

Minnesota Weather Plus--A Division of US Weather Plus.
Forecaster: Bohdan Cole 

Posting through various channels, and forecaster for multiple sources.

Hello everyone.  Our typical summer pattern is continuing.  Last nights severe weather did not quite happen for MSP.  The reason for this was the lack of the Low Level Jet Stream, which is typically needed to help initiate storms after dark.  It just didn't ramp up as expected.  There were storms to the West in the Dakotas, and to the North, and also East in Wisconsin.  We didn't get much more than a few rain showers.

We have another shot at some severe weather in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday 7/9.  The only potential limitings with this event would be a capping inversion (potential) and a possibility that overnight storms from Monday into Tuesday will leave too much lingering cloud and shower activity which would then cause the atmosphere to stabilize.  We need more clearing to make the conditions ripe for storm formation.

As always, here are some charts for you--for about 6pm Central time on Tuesday.

Upper level winds (Jet Stream) and Surface winds:

Jet Stream at 300MB Level

Surface Winds from South

Here is the expectation for CAPE:

CAPE

Lifted Index Values:

Lifted Index

 Temperatures:

Temperatures

Dewpoint Temps

Proposed Severe Risk from SPC--Slight Risk.  Also, there is a chart indicating the probability of Severe Weather within 25 miles of a point, with most of the area being at 30%.  These values will likely be tweaked as Tuesday approaches.

Slight Severe Risk

Categorical Risk

 Here is your updated 7-day Forecast as well:

Also, your Monday and Tuesday Precipitation Outlooks for the US and MN:

Thanks for checking back.  I will update tomorrow based on new model runs for the Severe Weather potential on Tuesday.

-Bo